Economy

The US economy added only about 57,000 jobs in June, roughly half of what economists expected, with earlier months revised lower, signalling a cooling labour market that could let the Federal Reserve stay patient.

India's services activity grew at its weakest pace in 17 months in June as demand softened, even as benchmark stock indices extended gains for a third session on hopes that weak US jobs data brings Federal Reserve rate cuts closer.

Japan's services activity returned to expansion in June after stalling the previous month, according to a private survey, though business confidence stayed subdued amid Middle East tensions and rising cost pressures.

US employers added only 57,000 jobs in June, well below forecasts, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% and prior months were revised down, prompting markets to ease bets on a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.

New orders for US manufactured goods declined about 1.3% in May, a smaller drop than feared, driven mainly by weaker demand for transportation equipment and aircraft as the industrial sector navigates higher costs.

The Japanese yen has traded near its weakest level against the US dollar in about four decades, fuelling speculation that authorities may step in, even as the Bank of Japan continues to tighten policy.

Investors are awaiting the June US employment report, released a day early ahead of the July 4 holiday, after soft private hiring data and cautious remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at a central banking forum in Portugal.

India's gross Goods and Services Tax collections rose 13.9% year-on-year to about Rs 1.95 lakh crore in June, the fastest annual growth in 13 months, driven largely by a surge in import-related revenue.

Confidence among Japan's big manufacturers rose to its strongest in years in the Bank of Japan's June Tankan survey, while firms lifted inflation expectations, reinforcing the case for further interest rate increases.

In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair, the FOMC voted unanimously on June 17 to hold the benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%, but its updated projections turned sharply hawkish. The median policymaker now expects rates to end 2026 higher than today at 3.8% — a reversal from March — with 17 of 18 officials seeing inflation risks tilted to the upside amid an energy-driven price shock.

The Bank of Japan continues to weigh further interest rate increases as oil-driven inflation persists well above its 2% target, with core inflation forecast at 2.5%–3.0% for fiscal 2026. After raising its policy rate to the highest level since the mid-1990s, the BOJ faces a delicate balance between containing imported inflation from Middle East energy costs and supporting an economy the bank expects to grow just 0.5% this fiscal year.

The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% at its June 17 meeting — the first chaired by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — in a unanimous 12-0 vote. In a hawkish shift, the updated dot plot showed nine of 18 policymakers now expect at least one rate hike before year end, reversing March projections that pointed to cuts. Warsh dramatically shortened the policy statement and removed forward guidance, as inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2% driven by the energy shock from the Iran conflict.

The Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate steady following the June framework agreement to end the US-Iran war, which eased the oil-driven inflation pressure that had earlier pushed markets to price in a near-certain June hike. Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 5.5% on news of the ceasefire framework in mid-June, while the easing of energy costs gave the BOJ greater flexibility to maintain a cautious stance amid lingering uncertainty over the durability of the truce.

Brent crude oil fell to around $72 per barrel on June 26 — its lowest level since late February — as shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated following progress toward a US-Iran peace deal. Persian Gulf exports have recovered to roughly 75% of pre-war levels, with Saudi Arabia ramping up loading at Ras Tanura, easing the inflation pressures that had rippled across global insurance, mortgage, and financial markets.

The US Federal Reserve has held its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% for multiple consecutive FOMC meetings amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. The April 2026 decision featured an unusually divided 8-4 vote — the most dissent since 1992 — reflecting growing disagreement among policymakers, while easing oil prices and falling Treasury yields may now give the Fed more room to consider rate cuts later in the year.

The Bank of Japan faces mounting pressure to raise its policy rate from 0.75% — already the highest since 1995 — as oil-driven inflation pushed its fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.5%–3.0%, well above its 2% target. Japan's heavy reliance on imported crude amplified the Middle East energy shock, though the recent retreat in oil prices toward pre-war levels may ease some of the urgency behind further tightening.

The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at its June meeting as widely expected, but markets reacted to a notably hawkish tone in the updated summary of economic projections. A majority of policymakers now expect a rate hike will be necessary later this year rather than a cut, as May inflation came in at 4.2% annually — the highest in more than three years — driven partly by energy costs from the US-Iran conflict.

The Bank of Japan continues to navigate a challenging path between persistent oil-driven inflation and slowing growth, having raised rates toward 1% — the highest level since the mid-1990s — amid energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. With core inflation forecast at 2.5–3.0% for fiscal 2026 and Japanese government bond yields at multi-decade highs, the central bank's tightening has significant implications for Japanese life insurers and global financial markets.

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee unanimously voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retain its neutral policy stance at its June 2026 meeting, citing geopolitical tensions, global market volatility, and inflation risks. The central bank raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.1% while noting that domestic economic activity remains resilient, following a cumulative 100 basis points of rate cuts during FY25-26.

The Bank of Japan was widely expected to raise its short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1% at its mid-June meeting, which would mark the highest rate since the mid-1990s. Surging crude oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict have pushed Japan's core inflation forecast to 2.5%–3.0% for fiscal 2026, well above the BOJ's 2% target, while Japan's 10-year government bond yield has climbed to its highest level since the late 1990s.

The US Federal Reserve has held its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% across consecutive 2026 meetings, with the April decision producing an 8-4 vote — the most divided FOMC decision since 1992. Persistent energy-driven inflation from the Middle East conflict and a resilient labour market have anchored the hold, even as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals a hawkish stance and markets debate the timing of any future rate cuts.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan has unveiled the city's first-ever heat plan, warning that making the most vulnerable homes resilient to extreme heat could cost between £9 billion and £45 billion. With around 1 million London homes at high risk of overheating and a record June heatwave triggering a rare red alert, the report highlights mounting climate-related financial risks that will require private investment — raising significant implications for the insurance and property sectors.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra has characterized short-term fluctuations such as net foreign direct investment outflows and exchange-rate movements as cyclical and closely monitored by the central bank. Speaking at a roundtable in New York attended by global financial institutions and investors, Malhotra highlighted India's macroeconomic strength — citing low inflation, a manageable current account deficit, and foreign exchange reserves of around $700 billion — alongside ongoing regulatory reforms.

The Bank of Japan continues to navigate a delicate balance between rising oil-driven inflation and a slowing economy following its June policy meeting. Japan's core inflation forecast for fiscal 2026 was raised to 2.5%–3.0% — well above the 2% target — driven by surging crude oil import costs linked to the Middle East conflict, while the central bank simultaneously cut its growth forecast, creating what analysts describe as a light stagflation scenario for the world's heavily oil-dependent economy.

The US Federal Reserve continues to hold its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, maintaining a cautious higher-for-longer stance amid persistent inflation driven partly by energy costs from the Iran conflict and a resilient labour market. With May 2026 employment growing by 172,000 jobs and unemployment near 4.4%, markets see limited near-term scope for rate cuts, keeping borrowing costs elevated for consumers, businesses, and financial institutions.

At new Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting on June 17, the Federal Reserve unanimously held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% but delivered a hawkish surprise: the updated dot plot showed a majority of policymakers now expect a rate hike before year-end rather than a cut, as inflation hit 4.2% in May — its highest level in three years amid the energy shock from the Iran conflict.

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee held the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for a second consecutive meeting and maintained its neutral stance, citing rising energy prices and global uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. The RBI lowered its FY2026/27 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.9% and raised its inflation projection to 5.1%, while announcing measures to attract foreign capital inflows.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17 in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, with a unanimous 12-0 vote. However, the updated projections turned notably hawkish: nine of 18 officials now expect a rate hike before year end, and 17 of 18 see inflation risks tilted to the upside as energy-driven price pressures from the Middle East conflict persist.

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee unanimously held the repo rate at 5.25% in its June 2026 meeting, maintaining a neutral stance after a cumulative 100 basis points of cuts during FY25-26. Governor Sanjay Malhotra cited geopolitical tensions in West Asia, rising energy prices, and global market volatility, with the RBI raising its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.1% while lowering its GDP growth projection to 6.6%.

The US Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% across recent FOMC meetings, navigating energy-driven inflation from the Iran conflict against a still-resilient labour market. With the April meeting producing the most divided FOMC vote since 1992 and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalling a hawkish stance, markets are weighing whether rate cuts are still possible later in 2026.

The Bank of Japan continues to navigate elevated inflation driven by surging crude oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, having raised its core inflation forecast for fiscal 2026 to 2.5%-3.0% — well above its 2% target. With Japan's 10-year government bond yield reaching multi-decade highs and Governor Kazuo Ueda maintaining a tightening bias, the BOJ faces a delicate balance between containing inflation and supporting a decelerating economy.

The US Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for three consecutive FOMC meetings amid persistent inflation and a resilient labour market. With the US-Iran ceasefire easing oil-driven inflation pressures, market attention is shifting to whether new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will signal a path toward rate cuts later in 2026, even as the FOMC remains deeply divided following an unusual 8-4 April vote.

The Bank of Japan has moved to raise its short-term policy rate to 1% at its June meeting, its most significant tightening since the mid-1990s, as oil-driven inflation linked to the Middle East conflict pushed core inflation toward 2.5%-3.0% — well above its 2% target. The decision marks a historic shift away from decades of ultra-low rates, with major implications for Japanese government bonds, life insurers, and global carry trades, even as the recent US-Iran ceasefire begins to ease energy pressures.

The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17 in a unanimous 12-0 vote, marking Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. The updated 'dot plot' removed the previous bias toward rate cuts, with a majority of policymakers now projecting at least one rate hike before year-end as inflation — driven by the Iran-related energy shock — runs well above the 2% target.

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% on June 16 — the highest level since 1995 — in a 7-1 vote, accelerating its policy normalization as a weak yen and oil-driven inflation take hold. The central bank signalled it will continue raising rates while closely monitoring the impact of the Middle East conflict on Japan's import-dependent economy.

The European Central Bank raised its main interest rates by 25 basis points on June 11, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25%, marking its first rate increase after eight cuts between June 2024 and June 2025. The ECB cited inflation pressures in the Eurozone generated by the Middle East conflict and rising energy costs, signalling a hawkish turn for the bloc's central bank.

The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, 2026, in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, voting unanimously 12-0. The updated 'dot plot' showed a hawkish shift, with the median end-2026 rate projection rising to 3.8% and nine of 18 officials projecting at least one rate hike before year-end as inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2% year-over-year in May.

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% on June 16, 2026 — the highest level since September 1995 — in a 7-1 vote, continuing its gradual normalization of decades-long ultra-loose monetary policy. The decision, driven by persistent inflation from a weak yen and elevated energy costs, also included a trimming of bond purchases as the central bank moves further away from its long era of monetary experimentation.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, 2026, in a unanimous 12-0 vote — Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. While the hold was widely expected, the updated Summary of Economic Projections turned sharply hawkish: the median policymaker now expects rates to end 2026 at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine of 18 officials projecting at least one rate hike before year end as the Iran war fuels inflation.

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% on June 16, 2026 — the highest level since 1995 — in a 7-1 Policy Board vote. The hike, widely expected by economists, continues Japan's gradual monetary normalization amid persistent inflation driven by a weak yen and elevated energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict. The central bank also announced it would trim its government bond purchases.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% on June 18, 2026, with one member voting for an increase to 4%. The hold — the fourth in a row — reflects the committee's balancing act between softer-than-expected May inflation of 2.8% and the risk that the Middle East conflict's energy supply shock could push prices higher in the second half of the year.

The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, 2026, in a unanimous 12-0 vote at Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. While the hold was widely expected, the updated dot plot turned hawkish: the median policymaker now expects rates to end 2026 higher than today, with nine of eighteen officials projecting at least one rate hike before year-end as inflation runs at a three-year high.

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% on June 16, 2026 — the highest level since September 1995 — in a 7-1 vote. The hike, the BOJ's first since December, aims to prevent the Iran war-driven energy shock from fueling broader and more persistent inflation across the Japanese economy, marking a continuation of the central bank's historic policy normalization.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee held the UK base rate at 3.75% on June 18, 2026, as the war in the Middle East continues to push up energy prices and household costs. UK inflation has risen to 2.8%, above the Bank's 2% target, with policymakers warning it could climb further this year as energy price increases work through the economy. The hold offers relief to tracker-mortgage borrowers but leaves the path for future cuts uncertain.

US applications for unemployment benefits fell to 226,000 for the week ending June 13, 2026, down 4,000 from the prior week, signaling continued labor market stability despite elevated levels. The four-week moving average rose to 223,250. Economists attributed recent elevation to seasonal distortions and viewed the data as stable enough for the Federal Reserve to stay focused on fighting inflation, even as a newly signed US-Iran ceasefire pushed oil prices lower.

The US Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision at 2:00 PM ET on June 17, 2026 — the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as the 17th Fed Chair on May 22. Markets price a roughly 97% probability that the FOMC holds the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, shifting attention to the updated dot plot and Warsh's debut press conference for signals on the rate path amid 4.2% inflation.

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1% on June 16, 2026 — its highest level since 1995 and the first increase since December. The 7-1 board decision came as Japan battles inflation fueled by the Middle East conflict, even after the US-Iran peace deal. The BOJ struck an unexpectedly dovish tone on bond purchases, pausing its taper to cap long-term yields.

Even with the US-Iran peace deal reached on June 14, 2026, economists warn that higher prices for gas, groceries, and flights triggered by the roughly 15-week war will persist well beyond the conflict's end. The energy shock that drove crude oil prices up roughly 40% and pushed US headline inflation to around 4.2% has rippled through transport and supply chains, complicating the outlook for consumers and central banks worldwide.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 4.35% on June 16, 2026 — its first pause after three consecutive hikes in February, March, and May that lifted the rate 75 basis points this year. Governor Michele Bullock said inflation, at 4.2% in April, remains 'too high' and a central concern. While the decision was unanimous and widely expected, the board retained a hawkish tilt, explicitly keeping open the option of further rate increases. Markets priced roughly a one-in-two chance of one more hike in 2026.

The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting on June 16, 2026 — the first chaired by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — with markets unanimously expecting the federal funds rate to hold at 3.50%-3.75%. The focus is squarely on whether the committee will strip its easing bias from the post-meeting statement, signalling that cuts are no longer the base case. The US-Iran peace deal, which has pulled oil and Treasury yields lower, complicates the calculus by potentially easing the inflation pressure that had pushed the Fed toward a hawkish stance.

Two of the world's most important central banks decide policy within hours of each other this week, and the timing could hardly be more consequential. The Federal Open Market Committee meets June 16-17, Kevin Warsh's first as Fed chair, with no rate change expected but markets watching for a possible shift away from any easing bias. The Bank of Japan concludes its meeting on June 16 and is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate to 1%. The sudden collapse in oil prices following the US-Iran peace deal upends the inflation calculus both banks had been navigating, injecting fresh disinflationary momentum just as they finalise their decisions.

Fitch Ratings is maintaining a base-case assumption that Brent crude will average $87 a barrel across 2026, reflecting its expectation that the Strait of Hormuz reopens around the end of July — implying an effective five-month closure of the world's most critical oil chokepoint. Analysts say crude could fall toward $70 if a US-Iran peace deal materialises and Gulf barrels return, though the EIA still projects Brent near $105 for June–July while Hormuz disruptions persist. The price path hinges almost entirely on the timing of the waterway's reopening.

Australia's superannuation assets fell 1% over the three months to March 31, 2026 to A$4.4 trillion, as the war in the Middle East and turbulent financial markets took their toll, according to the latest statistics from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). Over the full 12 months, however, total assets rose 7.9%, with APRA-regulated funds up 8.7%. The data also confirmed the rise of Australia's superannuation 'mega funds' — nine now hold more than A$100 billion each.

A Bloomberg survey of 51 economists, published June 9, 2026, found that 49 — nearly the entire panel — expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at its two-day meeting concluding June 16. The survey also reveals economists expect a second hike to 1.25% by year-end, as the Iran conflict-driven oil price surge keeps Japan's core inflation above the BOJ's 2% target and far above the neutral rate.

A Reuters poll of 102 economists conducted June 4–9, 2026, found that 72 of those surveyed now expect the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% through the entire remainder of 2026 — the first clear consensus on that view this year. Crucially, interest rate futures have gone further, pricing in at least one rate hike by year-end. A blowout May jobs report — 172,000 payrolls added, unemployment at 4.3% — and inflation running near double the 2% target are driving the shift.

The Federal Open Market Committee's June 16–17 meeting — the first chaired by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — is expected to produce no change to the 3.50%–3.75% target range, but markets are focused on a potential hawkish shift in the committee's forward guidance language. With US inflation running at approximately twice the 2% target, a blowout May jobs report, and interest rate futures now pricing possible rate hikes, the June FOMC statement could signal that the Fed's base case has shifted from cuts to a neutral or tightening bias.

Allianz Research's Global Insurance Report 2026, published May 28, identifies the US-Iran conflict as a 'major external supply shock' disrupting energy markets, trade flows, and supply chains across the global economy. In Allianz's central scenario, global GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2026, while Eurozone growth is forecast to collapse to just 0.8%. If the conflict is not resolved during summer 2026, Allianz warns of additional upward inflationary pressure and a materially worse global economic outlook — with direct consequences for insurance market conditions.

The US Federal Reserve has held its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for three consecutive FOMC meetings, reflecting persistent inflation pressures — partly driven by rising energy costs from the Middle East conflict — and a resilient labour market. Markets are watching the June 16–17 FOMC meeting closely for any signals from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on the future rate path.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1% at its June 15–16 policy meeting, with markets pricing in an 80% probability. Governor Kazuo Ueda has acknowledged that surging crude oil prices — linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict — are pushing Japan's core inflation toward 2.5%–3.0% in fiscal 2026, well above the central bank's 2% target and creating what analysts describe as a light stagflation scenario.